Chinese spot copper premiums hit the highest level since 2008, the era of high-speed copper demand growth does return to? the answer is negative.

Non-ferrous Institute researcher mid Ge Lin County of great wisdom AASTOCKS news agency, said: "Chinese copper backwardation reached its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, (April 25) liters of water up to 1300 yuan / ton, so high values Description spot copper market is very tight. "

Super premium 1,000 yuan per ton in the domestic spot copper in recent years are rare. Spot market is so tight, but not only because of market demand has picked up, but there are other promoter. Beijing a futures company research department responsible for the "First Financial", said:

The recent depreciation of the yuan higher international copper costs, currently imported to a loss of 4,000 yuan / ton, the power to suppress the import cost. At the same time, copper smelters to pull into the bonded copper, for export, but the State Reserve Bureau copper Bonded those trapped, causing domestic prices substantial premium.

According to the Wall Street informative website quoted Reuters, the State Reserve Bureau in March and April, since the bonded warehouse Shouchu at least 200,000 tons of imported copper. This year, the State Reserve Bureau total purchasing and storage of copper 500,000 tons.

Shanghai Nonferrous network information also shows that the market price was lower Weigao disorder ...... mentality, manifested tangled, mainly speculative transactions in order to middlemen.

"Securities Times" published Boseong futures analyst Cheng Xiaoyong believe that this man can not be sustained backwardation:

From a statistical perspective, the copper backwardation rose rare, and no super-premium more than 500 yuan week duration;

Domestic spot copper supply shortage is only temporary, the majority of copper is temporarily locked in a bonded warehouse, repair and import parity as long as the copper loss reduction, this part of the copper will quickly release;

Once the domestic spot copper continued at the high, not only China will import declaration Bonded copper, copper imports and overseas will rise significantly.

Although it has been entered in April, May electricity, electronics, automotive and other key areas of demand for copper consumption season. Shanghai Nonferrous network information also shows that the current wire and cable business of orders gradually turn for the better, brass enterprises operating rate rose sharply, automobile manufacturers with copper also increase. But in the long run, Chinese copper demand growth likely to remain limited space, this year, copper consumption growth spectacular difficult to reproduce.

China's annual copper consumption accounted for 40% of the global total, Chinese investors worried about the economic slowdown in the country's copper consumption prospects.

The Chinese government will this year's GDP growth target set at 7.5%. However, the first quarter GDP growth rate has fallen to 7.4 percent, the lowest level since the 20 quarters.

Monthly economic indicators are unsatisfactory, industrial added value increased in the first quarter was only 8.8%, fixed asset investment growth of 17.6%. HSBC China April manufacturing PMI is the fourth consecutive month below the line ups and downs, the new orders index fell, showing China's manufacturing sector remains weak demand.

Integrated consumption of large real estate sector performed poorly: the national real estate sales, sales of new housing construction area of real estate development enterprise land acquisition area data fell across the board in the first quarter. However, the national real estate for sale in the area of end-March grew by 22.9%.

After the release of economic data, Premier Li Keqiang clear that there is no strong stimulation consideration. And executives have repeatedly stressed the steady growth. Therefore, China's economic restructuring policies will continue to underpinning the occasion, fine-tuning based. In the European and American economies, no substantial significant improvement in the domestic economic slowdown trend, this year's stocking downstream buyers still cautious, copper consumption or limited growth.

Cheng Xiaoyong worry, focus on the release and supply outlook in late May off-season arrival of the dual pressures lead to copper prices hit a new round of selling.

Wall Street knowledge previously mentioned website Goldman Sachs financing for Chinese copper demand concerns, Goldman Sachs, senior metals analyst Max Layton worried Chinese copper demand in the next 12-18 months:

Chinese mainland copper financing transactions will gradually disappear in the medium term, mainly by foreign exchange hedging costs rising drive.

In order to manage the expected inflow of hot money, China will continue to increase the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, thus increasing the cost of hedging the majority of market participants, but also increases the cost of currency hedging commodity trade finance transactions. Hedging costs will slowly erode the profit margins of trade finance and ultimately stifle the spread arbitrage.

For more long-term future, the British commodities research group CRU (Commodity Research Unit) predicted that,

The next ten years, the average growth rate of China's copper demand fell sharply from 11% to 3.5% over the past decade.

According to the Shanghai Nonferrous network April 25 data, spot copper premium of up to 1150-1300 yuan per ton, compared to $ Yangshan copper premium of 100-125 per ton. Spot copper average premium increase of 8.6% last week. 1 # copper spot price of 49,600 yuan -50 100 yuan a tonne.